Seel's Pre-Morning Line Derby Picks
Saturday's Kentucky Derby field is set, and Hard Spun -- expected to go off at 15-1 odds -- is my pick to win this crapshoot of a race. I use the term "crapshoot" in both the best and worst ways possible. Best: Derby Day is the New Year's Eve of pari-mutuel wagering. Novice horseplayers throw big money at trendy picks, thus giving the savvy bettor potentially lucrative odds on underrated yet talented horses in a 20-horse field (the maximum allowed -- and the more horses, the better the moneymaking potential). Worst: About that 20 horse field -- it's way too fucking big. Really good horses can get off to a bumpy start, have plenty of spark, battle back gamely, and still finish out of the money simply because the track doesn't have enough viable holes to hit in a field that large. This can make the Derby as frustrating to watch (and bet) as harness racing, second only to dog racing as the dumbest sports wager on the planet.
But back to why I think Hard Spun wins. Two words: Beyer progression. "Beyer" is horse parlance for "speed," named after the great thoroughbred journalist Andy Beyer (who, ironically, has never been able to pick a Derby winner to save his life). And Beyer progression, in my opinion, is especially important when evaluating young horses. If a horse consistently improves, as Hard Spun has in his six career races, that's a telltale sign that the horse probably hasn't peaked (reminder: the Derby horses, all three-year-olds, aren't the world's best horses. Those horses, ages 4 and up, run in the Breeder's Cup Classic every fall).
Hard Spun's doubters, including Beyer (yes!), cite the colt's no-name trainer and six-week layoff between his last race and the Derby as potential black marks on the horse's chances. But thoroughbred racing is the sort of sport where there's so much criteria to take into account that one can end up out-thinking the race (see: my last two idiotic Derby betting sprees). In a field where there is no clear front-runner -- and there aren't any here -- 'tis best to keep it simple.
I won't be betting any exotics (again, see: my last two idiotic Derby betting sprees) and will focus nearly as much energy on the live card at Emerald Downs, but the horses I think will be the biggest threats to Hard Spun are the ultra-consistent Nobiz Like Shobiz, the lightly-raced yet speedy Curlin, Zanjero (don't ask me why: it's just this hunch I've got), and Scat Daddy, who's trained by Todd Pletcher, the Phil Mickelson of horse racing who's never won the Big One and is just as insufferable. Go-go, show ponies!
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