Seel's Derby Preview: Year of the Ladyhorse?

Last June, the filly (horse-racing parlance for "ladyhorse") Rags to Riches shocked many observers by upsetting Curlin in the Belmont Stakes, the final jewel in the Triple Crown. Because of Rags to Riches, this year's star ladyhorse, Eight Belles, who would have been favored in the Kentucky Oaks (that's Friday's all-day drunkfest ladyhorse prequel to the annual Saturday all-day drunkfest that ensues at Churchill Downs) had she not chosen to challenge the boys, will probably surprise less people if she becomes the fourth ladyhorse to win the Kentucky Derby, and not just because of her man-eating ladyhorse forerunner.

Eight Belles is to be taken seriously in this 20-horse field because said field is one of the weakest in Derby history, top to bottom. The favorite, Big Brown, has posted far and away the best speed figures, but will be looking to beat longer historical odds than the ladyhorse even, given that he's only raced three times -- and horses that race three times win in Louisville about once a century, whereas ladyhorses win about once a quarter-century. Another historical benchmark is that the horse that wins the Derby has to have posted a triple-digit speed figure (it's too complicated to explain how they come up with this figure; just take my word for it), and there are only six horses in this field who've done that, among them the ladyhorse.

The ladyhorse also has more races under her belt (9) than any of her male counterparts; and experience comes in handy when attempting to navigate one's way through the Derby's ridiculously crowded field. So, yeah, I really like this ladyhorse -- but I have a feeling she's going to get overbet (her Morning Line odds are 20-1, but expect that to plummet south of 10-1 by post time), which we can blame, in part, on Rag to Riches' Belmont surprise. So I'm going to have some action on two other horses as well, and possibly three if I've won enough money and/or consumed enough hard booze during the Churchill undercard.

Just a hunch here, but I think Z Fortune (15-1 on the morning line) could be sitting on a big race after finishing a game second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. In a race chockablock with synthetic track wussies, Z Fortune is all dirt, and will have expert guidance in trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Robby Albarado. He's also one of the six with the triple-digit speed figure, and has exhibited an ability to thrive despite crappy trips -- also a good club to have in your bag coming into a race where a good trip is the exception, not the rule.

Cool Coal Man isn't one of the triple-digit six, and he got destroyed in the Blue Grass, a key Derby prep run at Keeneland. But remember: a couple years ago, the Wrigley Field of horse tracks inexplicably switched to a Polytrack surface, so I'm chucking that race and looking instead at the fact that Cool Coal Man is three for six lifetime on dirt, as well as one for two at Churchill. Plus, he has a fucking awesome name and is trained by the affable Nick Zito (as opposed to Todd Pletcher, whom I refuse to bet on simply because he's such a douche).

One more horse of intrigue: Denis of Cork. Again: awesome name, and he's being ridden by last year's champ jockey, Calvin Borel, aka "Calvin Bo-Rail." The Corkster broke his maiden in his debut race at Churchill, and his odds (20-1) would be cut in half were it not for a setback in the Illinois Derby after winning the Southwest. He's also said to be turning in the most impressive workouts over the Louisville oval this week, which is to be taken with a heavy grain of salt, as factoring in works betrays a tendency to overthink things. But if Borel gets to his beloved bo-rail, look out.

So who wins? The ladyhorse, Eight Belles -- maybe. I'll have across-the-board action on her as well as Z Fortune, and I'll be boxing that pair in an exacta. Then I'll have a tri that includes Cool Coal Man (hell, I might single him as well), and perhaps a superfecta that includes the ladyhorse, Z, Coal, and the Corkster.