Does Dino Win?
Posted Aug. 20 at 8:28 am by Rick Anderson
The Evergreen-Washelli precinct is yet to be heard from. But once again, it looks like every graveyard vote counts. For Chris and Dino, 2008 appears to be the new 2004.
At this moment, Gregoire, with 403,000 votes, leads Rossi, with 368,500. Almost 819,000 voters cast ballots among ten gubernatorial candidates, but the top two are separated by just 34,500.
Though it was a considered a "strong" voter showing for a primary (only in America do we think it's great when less than half the registered voters do their duty), the November general/presidential election turnout could be three times yesterday's. The outcome is pure guesswork.
So let's guess. Tea-leavers are left to read how things shaped up at this point four years ago. Gregoire, with 504,00 votes to Rossi's 444,000, led by 60,000 votes. The 2004 primary turnout was even greater than this year - 1.3 million votes cast among 11 candidates.
With 228,000 Democratic votes going to Ron Sims in that primary, Gregoire looked like a clear winner in the 2004 general election. And she did win - by 129 votes, a crowd about the size of a family picnic.
So if Gregoire led by 60,000 back then and barely won, what does it mean when she leads by merely 34,500 now (and with no big vote-syphoning Demo like Sims in the race)? Additionally, primary against primary, Rossi's vote total dropped 75,500 this time, but Gregoire's dropped 102,000.
Make of it what you will. We'll know in November - if not January.
Topics: Politics
Comments
The Sims candidacy and the turnout are big factors in the guesswork, so it's hard to compare. But percentagewise, overall it seems Rossi is in a better position than last time. Yet there will be more D-crats coming to the polls this November to put Obama in office.
Posted Aug. 20 at 9:06 am by Sherman