New Poll Shows Gregoire, I-100, Prop 1, and (of course) Obama Leading in Washington
The Washington Poll, a non-partisan polling service sponsored by the UW and directed by UW Political Science professor Matt A. Barreto, released the results of their October 18-26 survey of 600 registered Washington state voters today. Some rough results:
President
Obama – Certain 51 %
Obama – could change mind 3 55%
Undecided – lean Obama 1
McCain – Certain 32%
McCain– could change mind 2 34%
Undecided – lean McCain 0
Someone Else 5%
Undecided/Don’t know 6%
Governor
Gregoire – Certain 48 %
Gregoire – could change mind 3 51%
Undecided – lean Gregoire 0.4
Rossi – Certain 43%
Rossi – could change mind 1 45%
Undecided – lean Rossi 1
Undecided/Don’t know 3.5%
I-985 (Eyman)
Yes I-985 – Certain 36 %
Yes I-985 – could change mind 6 45%
Undecided – lean Yes 3
No I-985 – Certain 39%
No I-985– could change mind 3 43%
Undecided – lean No 1
Undecided/Don’t know 12%
I-1000 (Death with Dignity)
Yes I-1000 – certain 51 %
Yes I-1000 – could change mind 3 56%
Undecided – lean Yes 2
No I-1000 – certain 35
No I-1000 – could change mind 3 38%
Undecided – lean No 0
Undecided/Don’t know 6%
Prop 1 (Sound Transit)
Yes on Prop. 1 – certain 38%
Yes on Prop. 1 – could change mind 7 50%
Undecided – lean Yes 5
No on Prop. 1 – certain 36%
No on Prop. 1 – could change mind 4 43%
Undecided – lean No 3
Undecided/Don’t know 7%
You can get the PowerPoint with the full results at the Washington Poll site. Full press release after the jump:
Seattle, WA — New polling data from the Washington Poll demonstrates a
new shift in the Gubernatorial election in Washington state with
Democrat Christine Gregoire now leading GOP candidate Dino Rossi by 6
points - 51% to 45% with 4% still undecided. Gregoire is greatly
benefiting from the coattails of Democratic Presidential candidate
Barack Obama who leads Republican John McCain by an even larger margin,
55% to 34% with 5% for other candidates and 6% undecided.
In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated Republican George Bush by 7 points
in Washington state, 53 - 46, while the Governor's election was a
virtual tie between Gregoire and Rossi. In 2008, Gregoire still
under-performs the Democratic advantage for President, just as she did
in 2004, however Barack Obama appears to have a much larger advantage in
2008 than Kerry did in 2004.
While other polls showed the 2008 Governor's election a dead heat in
September and early October, the Washington Poll reflects the latest
trends in public opinion in the state. The poll was in the field
October 18 - 26, and interviewed 600 registered voters statewide, for a
margin of error of 4.0%
"The new data suggest that Gregoire is benefiting tremendously from
Obama's popularity in Washington. Her decision to endorse Obama back in
February is now paying dividends with many Obama supporters also
supporting Gregoire," said University of Washington Political Science
professor Matt A. Barreto, director of the Washington Poll. "However,
we need to remember that there is still over a week left in this
election and Dino Rossi has run a very effective campaign, so we could
still see the race tighten down the stretch."
Gregoire and Rossi are virtually tied among Independents, the most
important political category in Washington state, with 48 for Gregoire
to 47 for Rossi. In Puget Sound, Gregoire is favored 57 to 40, while in
Eastern Washington Rossi is favored 61 to 34.
The Washington Poll will release a second poll on November 1, based on a
statewide poll of voters from October 27 - Nov 1, to determine if the
support levels are holding steady, or any changes are evident in the
final week. Results will be posted on the web at: www.washingtonpoll.org
While many polls have been conducted in Washington state during the 2008
election, The Washington Poll has provided the most accurate data on
voter opinions. In 2006, the poll predicted Maria Cantwell would defeat
Mike McGavick by double digits and she ultimately won by 17 points. In
2007, the poll projected I-960 was leading by only 1 point, and it
ultimately passed 51-49, by 2 points. Consistently, the Washington Poll
has accurately predicted the last 10 major statewide candidate elections
and initiatives in Washington state.
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