ANTM: And Down the Stretch They Come!

Much like EW's Michael Slezak, my early Top Model handicapping gargled balls. But lately, my game's gotten tighter. To wit, with the elimination of the hideous Bianca, this year's finale will not be a reprise of last year's tranny-fest. Instead, it will feature two uber-commercial youngsters (Saleisha and Chantal) and one "edgy" smart-ass (Jenah). In what promises to be one of the tightest stretch runs in ANTM Distaff history, I'll simply follow the old adage that is consistently amplified ten-fold by Banks & Co's ethnic hyper-awareness: always bet on black. With that, the final odds (with previous week's odds in parentheses):

Jenah Doucette 4-1 (6-1). Her story arc -- excel until final five, hit a treacherous speed bump, recover -- makes me suspicious that this wiry teenage rock-climber with the piercing eyes and flippant, take-it-or-leave-it attitude is being set up for a surprise victory. After all, she's clearly the edgiest of the final three, and that might be enough to distinguish her at the wire. But on a show that's consistently gone for the unconventional look/comeback story -- and failed -- we think a more classically bred filly is likely to enter the winner's circle this time 'round.

Chantal Jones, 5-2 (3-1). This tall drink of water has been training for this race all her life, and a victory here would be consistent with ANTM's years-long light-dark ham and egg pattern that saw the Nuyorican dolt, Jaslene, prevail last season. But there are a lot of models currently getting a lot of work that look a lot like Chantal. In other words, she might not be a fresh enough face, but she's still the most likely to grace the cover of FHM someday, for whatever that's worth.

Saleisha, 2-1 (2-1). Once way back in the pack at 20-1, this spritely Angelino will win by a hair's breadth simply by being what no other Top Model winner in the show's history has been: a smart, conventional, black beauty. These attributes should ensure a long, if unspectacular, career on the catwalk and in catalogues, the type of championship resume Tyra's baby needs to regain any speck of credibility.