Golden Globes Preview and Predictions

Remember last year's Golden Globe ceremony?  Don't strain too hard - it didn't exist.  The Writers Guild strike, and the Actors Guild's reluctance to cross the picket line, forced the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to reduce their usual glamor-fest to a press conference announcing the winners.   Not a backless gown or drunken George Clooney in sight.

As a film awards season junkie, I heart the Golden Globes for one simple reason:  booze.  That isn't sparkling cider in those flutes.  Encouraging natural born narcissists to souse up before stumbling onto a stage to slur into a microphone while holding an awkward, top-heavy trophy is entertainment at its finest.   No wonder they forget who to thank - some of them forget where they are.  In 1998, Christine Lahti was in the bathroom when she was announced the winner for Chicago Hope.  OK, so it's not Hedonism III, but it's bacchanal compared to the super-serious Academy Awards.

Some Oscar aficionados see the Globes as an Oscar indicator of sorts.  Truth be told, the HFPA fancies themselves free-thinkers, so a Globe win isn't a straight shot to Oscar glory.  Their Best Picture winners haven't matched the Oscar winner since 2003.  Every year there seems to be at least one or two oddball nominees; last year's Best Picture nod for the tepid Denzel Washington vehicle The Great Debaters springs to mind.  There doesn't seem to be a lot of method to their madness.  Still, a win can't hurt your Oscar chances.  And they do pour a mean Manhattan.

Who's going to win on Sunday?  My best guesses...

Supporting Actor:  Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder

This is a tough one - Downey's competition includes co-star Tom Cruise, whose fat-suit booty shaking won him some long-lost respect, and the late Heath Ledger's legitimately scary Joker in The Dark Knight.  Don't count out a Ledger tribute, but I'm betting on Downey if for no other reason than his acceptance speech would rock.  (Maybe he'll do it in character like on the Tropic Thunder DVD commentary - one can only hope.)

Supporting Actress:  Penelope Cruz for Vicky Christina Barcelona

The foreign press still loves Woody Allen, and Cruz has dominated the critics' awards so far.  Kate Winslet's a possible upset (she just won the Critics Choice award for The Reader) but I'm banking on Cruz here.

Actor (Musical/Comedy):  Colin Farrell for In Bruges

This one is almost by default, as Farrell's competition includes co-star Brendan Gleason (great, but upstaged by Farrell),  Barcelona's Javier Bardem (great, but won last year for No Country for Old Men), James Franco for Pineapple Express (great, but American stoners are probably not the HFPA's cup of tea) and Dustin Hoffman for Last Chance Harvey (great, in Tootsie.)

Actress (Musical/Comedy):  Meryl Streep for Mamma Mia!

Strong category with Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky), Frances McDormand (Burn After Reading) and Rebecca Hall (Barcelona).  So let's do this scientifically:  Foreigners love ABBA.  Period.  Streep for the win.

Actor (Drama):  Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Another tough one - Rourke's up against Hollywood royalty (DiCaprio, Penn, Pitt) and Richard Nixon.  Rourke's riches-to-rags-to-riches story should appeal to the Globes.

Actress (Drama):  Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road

Something's got to give here.  Winslet's been nominated seven times and has come up empty - she's becoming the Susan Lucci of the Globes.   The HPFA loved Road (four total nominations) so this should be Kate's year.  If she snags the Supporting Actress award, look for Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married) to grab this one.

Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy):  Vicky Christina Barcelona

ABBA vs. Woody:  When Titans Clash.  Mamma Mia! is probably the safest bet, but Barcelona received the most nominations of any of the movies in this category.

Motion Picture (Drama):   The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Some major Oscar hopefuls - Milk, The Dark Knight, The Wrestler, Gran Torino - didn't make the Globe short list; the HFPA went for Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Revolutionary Road, The Reader and Frost/Nixon.  Slumdog, winner of five Critics Choice awards including Best Picture, would be the obvious choice if the movie had one bona fide Hollywood star for the foreign press to fawn over.  Since it doesn't, I'm going with Button's toothsome twosome, Pitt and Blanchett, to carry the movie to victory.

And the rest...

Director:  David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Screenplay:  Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Animated Feature:  WALL-E

Original Score:  Clint Eastwood, The Changeling

Original Song:  "The Wrestler" from The Wrestler