America's Next Top Model's 11th cycle all comes down to Wednesday's season finale; but really, the effort to actually select a top model ended two episodes ago, when Elina, a uniquely attractive teenaged lesbian from Seattle, was eliminated. We were pretty sure she was going to win, and boy we were we wrong. What we're left with is a Final Three populated by sweet, athletic, generally uninspiring cuties who don't drink. Thus, the winner is destined to be America's Next Target (as in the dept. store) Model, and here's our handy handicapper's guide to whose picture will reside beneath the black drape in the show's final minute.

Samantha, 20-1. Despite her morning line odds of 50-1, she's made some nice strides in recent weeks. But still, her look is simply too conventional to go the distance. What we thought would be a classic fourth-place finisher now looks primed to be a classic bronze medalist.

McKey, 3-1. Her boxer's background and personality are sufficiently odd enough to merit serious co-favorite consideration, and she has the most "signature" look of the final slate of fillies. That may be enough to put her over the top, but she's not as well-rounded (i.e., didn't bring it to the Cover Girl ad) as her chief rival, who we're betting will win a photo finish here.

Analeigh, 2-1. She's performed at the most consistently high level throughout this competition, and everybody -- especially Nigel Barker -- seems to genuinely love her look and personality. If she doesn't win, it's because the champ of two years back, Saleisha, was cut from a similar cloth constitutionally (if not ethnically) -- and Banks & Co. are always fond of rocking the boat. But we're guessing that if they really wanted to make that sort of splash, they would have made sure Elina galloped across the line first. Hence, Mrs. Consistency (pictured above) should narrowly prevail come Wednesday evening.

I'll post revised odds for the America's Next Top Model Amsterdam Distaff next week, but regret to inform you that our 2-1 favorite, Elina (pictured above), was eliminated last night for basically being too mature for the dolts on the panel. Never mind that she lost out to a mousy, heinous Jamie Lee Curtis lookalike in the final two, or that she's a uniquely gorgeous 19-year-old lesbian who lives in Seattle. Without Elina, I'll be reverting to my personal spin on the ANTM name again: America's Next Target Model, as in the discount department store. Elina was the only contestant for whom the "Top" hat fit, and now she's gone in a tizzy of shortsightedness.

In years past, we've taken to dismissing Tyra Banks' indefatigable America's Next Top Model as America's Next Target Model, as the series has notoriously failed to actually produce a top model from its cyclical crop of winners. This season, however, is different: Cycle 11's cast features a stunning, exceptionally bright 19-year-old Ukranian-born lesbian named Elina (pictured above), who happens to call Seattle home.

Over the past few years, Banks has made a habit of casting at least one plus-size model for supposed shock value/political correctness. Last year, the plus-sizer (Whitney) actually won. This year's cast included no plus-sizers, but features the aforementioned lesbian, as well as a transsexual named Isis and a stripper-like Asian chick with fake tits named Sheena. This is hardly your average supermodel material, and the fact that only Elina is left standing is testament to the tokenness of Banks' gesture.

But in what we view as a two-horse race, the hometown dyke rates as a narrow favorite in this, the annual ANTM Thread Count Distaff, held this year in Amsterdam. Below you'll find odds and commentary for Cycle 11's final five, who enter the homestretch tomorrow night on the CW.

Marjorie, 999-1. She's not winning. No way, no how. Sure, she's bright, quirky, and cute in an androgynous sort of way. But she's also super-annoying, mousy, and nowhere near the other contestants' league looks-wise. How she made it this far is one of television's great mysteries.

Samantha, 50-1. Pretty, tall, and blonde are good things to be if you're a model. Abrasive and uninteresting aren't. The archetypal fourth-place Top Model contestant.

McKey, 10-1. A strong argument could be made that this beauty takes the best pictures, and that counts for a lot here. But this filly isn't playing with a full deck of cue cards, if you know what I mean, and that also counts for a lot. McKey will be in the money, but you won't be seeing her in any Cover Girl ads anytime soon.

Analeigh, 4-1. Bright, personable, and pretty with a wide, interesting mouth, it wouldn't surprise us one bit if Analeigh crossed the finish line first. That said, while her performance this season has been far more consistent than her chief rival, her look isn't as fresh or versatile as Elina's -- and she's not a 19-year-old Ukranian-born lesbian. Banks is a sucker for anointing fillies with unique attributes, and Elina has that all over the rest of the field.

Elina, 2-1. We realize her posing range is somewhat limited, and she has a tendency to psych herself out of taking chances onset. We also realize she's been on the chopping block in the last two episodes, an ominous sign in a show that's held pretty firmly to a three-strikes-you're-out m.o. But make no mistake about it: This filly represents ANTM's first real opportunity to break a legitimate supermodel, and she'd be the first openly gay contestant ever to walk off with the contract. She's skating on thin ice right now, but we're still betting she skates to victory after the final Dutch runway show.

The most heinous contestant (Dominique) in the history of America's Next Target Model finally got the boot last night, which leaves us with three flawed (they're always flawed on this show) but evenly-matched fillies vying for the jewel of the Thread Count crown at the top of the stretch. Here's our predicted order of finish on May 14:

Show: Anya Kop. A classic rabbit, this skinny, luminous bottle blonde would definitely be the safest pick if Tyra's panel wants to ensure their champ actually finds work in the modeling industry after the show's over. But that's rarely what ANTM, a show that inspires such passion as to lead to mortal combat, has aspired to, and Anya doesn't do herself any favors when she opens her mouth and spews forth that grating, one-of-a-kind Hawiiarican (even though she's white) accent. She'll be the first one lopped off come Wednesday.

Place: Fatima Siad. She's made a game charge from the back of the pack and has the handicapable card to play with that mutilated vadge, but ultimately, two things are going to prevent her from entering the winner's circle: (1) the shoot she missed as a result of her visa snafu, as the finalists' entire body of work is inevitably taken into account at this stage of the game, and (2) simple demographics: While ANTM has plucked minorities aplenty to wear its crown, it's never plucked a plus-sizer, which leads us to our champ...

Win: Whitney Thompson. With her Dallas Cowboy cheerleader looks and curvy frame, this powerful filly -- our pick from the start (or close to it) -- will never be "couture" or "high fashion." She may not even be "commercial." But she'll win here, both because she's far and away the best-looking plus (read: normal) size model ever to appear on the show, and because she seems to have a pretty good head on her shoulders. Hence, she'll be cast as a "role model" in her post-ANTM career. And she may even get to scamper down the Mall of Americas runway in a dress with a giant red dot on it at some point, too, because that's what America's Next Target Model is all about.

Last Wednesday, America's Next Target Model (aka "America's Next Top Model") continued its tradition of cutting its best-looking contender with the ouster of Katarzyna Dolinska, previously a 4-1 morning line shot in Thread Count's ANTM handicapping series. That leaves four fillies remaining in a mediocre head-scratcher of a Distaff home stretch. But we'll do our best to try and forecast which one has the best shot of ending up in the winner's circle.

Dominique Reighard, 5000-1. She's still on the board simply to give ANTM the air of drama, seeing as she seized the "bitch" mantra early on. There's simply no way a girl this repugnant can win, no matter how well she (inexplicably) photographs. The last filly of this ilk was the too-old Jade, and she made the Final Three a few years ago. That's the ceiling for 'Nique, but ain't no way is she America's Next Target Model.

Anya Kop, 5-1. Her super annoying Hawaii-Rican accent aside, this lithe bottle blonde is the most conventional pick remaining in the field, and she's certainly put together the most consistent record coming into the final turn. But we don't think convention will prevail in the year when Tyra & Co. are afforded the opportunity to tap a legitimately attractive plus-sizer.

Fatima Siad, 4-1. The biggest mover in the field, this Iman doppelganger with a circumcised vagina (hence, she has a cause to tout, which is always a plus) has a striking look, a reasonably intelligent head on her shoulders, and has made a strong move from the back of the pack. But we feel like her final push will come up a neck short.

Whitney Thompson, 3-1. Holding steady at 3-1, the curvaceous Thompson has more problems to overcome than her two strongest rivals: the judges think her personality and camera presence are a little too fake and beauty queenish. But they can't stop gushing about her "beautiful face" -- and, more importantly, the panel has yet to assign its plus-sized contestants anything more than token status since the show's debut. Thompson wouldn't be in here if Banks, Nigel and the Jays weren't intent on breaking that awful streak. Thompson's our pick, by a (thicker than usual) neck.

America's Next Top Model might be the most disingenuous title in television history. Why? Because, as we've said before, if any of these girls really had the potential to be America's next top model, they'd have been discovered well before Tyra plucked 'em. Henceforth, ANTM will be referred to on Thread Count as America's Next Target Model, and here's how we stack the odds for the final six fillies in a predictably mediocre Cycle 10 field.

Dominique Reighard: 5000-1. These are the single longest odds ever placed on a filly who's made it this far on the track. Why? Because this chick looks like a tranny, and remains in the field solely to play the "cocky bitch" role that was so sorely missed (or not) last cycle, when all the girls were, for the most part, pretty and nice. The last person to play this role, Jade Scorpion, made it to the Final Three. Dominique may make it to the Final Four, but ain't no way she's America's Next Target Model (Wal-Mart, maybe).

Fatima Siad, 15-1. She slid into the travel round (they're going to Rome) by virtue of her overall portfolio, even though the African refugee missed a photo shoot to get her travel papers in line at the Embassy (shoulda done that a little earlier, kiddo). The judges keep comparing her to Iman, and she has the sympathy card going by virtue of having been circumcised as an infant (an act considered by many to be a form of mutilation when performed on females). But she's got terrible skin, has stagnated after a strong start, and that missed shoot isn't likely to fade into the background anytime soon. Still, she's got a puncher's chance of making it into the Final Three, as Banks & Co. have consistently been loathe to make it an all-Whitey finale.

Lauren Utter: 8-1. If height, looks and photographs were all that mattered, this Brooklyn hipster/novice model would be the odds-on favorite. But she can't walk, slouches in front of the judges, and has confidence issues (despite the fact that she's easily the brightest bulb on the billboard). That said, she mingled well after a few drinks at a recent red carpet party where the only celebrities present were Nigel Barker and Ric Ocasek, so maybe keeping a flask in her drawers would be a good strategy from here on out.

Anya Kop: 7-1. At this point, she's leading the pack. But she's sort of alien looking, and that inexplicable Hawaiirican accent (she's white, remember) that annoyed the judges out of the blocks is bound to bite her in the ass when the spokesmodeling challenge rolls around. This filly is a classic rabbit; she'll be lucky to finish in the money.

Katarzyna Dolinska: 4-1. She's super cute, has an Eastern European accent, and models effortlessly, but, in the judges' opinion, is too workmanlike and lacks personality. If she can show some spunk after de-planing in Italy, she could jump to frontrunner status, but until she does that, we see silver in her future.

Whitney Thompson, 3-1. This could finally be the year of the plus (read: normal) size win on America's Next Target Model. Thompson is pretty, curvaceous, vivacious, and confident -- maybe too confident. The judges detect a bit too much beauty queen in her schtick, but we feel she's got the chops to nip that tendency in the bud in what could be one of the closest stretch runs in Distaff history. Buckle up, fans, you're in for a wild ride!

I've been totally wrong in my assertions that America's Next Top Model has never produced an actual top model. Cycle 1 third-place finisher Elyse Sewell, who this weekend made headlines for her brief imprisonment following a brouhaha with her Shins boyfriend, Marty Crandall, is a top model in China, at least according to America's most reliable information source, Wikipedia. Take that, me.

As the field began to come into focus for this year's running of the America's Top Model Distaff, a mile-long race for fillies aged 21 and under, we had this to say about Saleisha, to whom we assigned odds of 20-1: "A super cute, super smart, shortish African-American model, Saleisha is probably the girl who, if leaning against a bar rail alongside the other seven finalists, would get asked out on more dates than anyone else. That's another way of saying she's not high fashion enough to prevail in the end, despite the fact that she'll likely make the final three or four

Much like EW's Michael Slezak, my early Top Model handicapping gargled balls. But lately, my game's gotten tighter. To wit, with the elimination of the hideous Bianca, this year's finale will not be a reprise of last year's tranny-fest. Instead, it will feature two uber-commercial youngsters (Saleisha and Chantal) and one "edgy" smart-ass (Jenah). In what promises to be one of the tightest stretch runs in ANTM Distaff history, I'll simply follow the old adage that is consistently amplified ten-fold by Banks & Co's ethnic hyper-awareness: always bet on black. With that, the final odds (with previous week's odds in parentheses):

Jenah Doucette 4-1 (6-1). Her story arc -- excel until final five, hit a treacherous speed bump, recover -- makes me suspicious that this wiry teenage rock-climber with the piercing eyes and flippant, take-it-or-leave-it attitude is being set up for a surprise victory. After all, she's clearly the edgiest of the final three, and that might be enough to distinguish her at the wire. But on a show that's consistently gone for the unconventional look/comeback story -- and failed -- we think a more classically bred filly is likely to enter the winner's circle this time 'round.

Chantal Jones, 5-2 (3-1). This tall drink of water has been training for this race all her life, and a victory here would be consistent with ANTM's years-long light-dark ham and egg pattern that saw the Nuyorican dolt, Jaslene, prevail last season. But there are a lot of models currently getting a lot of work that look a lot like Chantal. In other words, she might not be a fresh enough face, but she's still the most likely to grace the cover of FHM someday, for whatever that's worth.

Saleisha, 2-1 (2-1). Once way back in the pack at 20-1, this spritely Angelino will win by a hair's breadth simply by being what no other Top Model winner in the show's history has been: a smart, conventional, black beauty. These attributes should ensure a long, if unspectacular, career on the catwalk and in catalogues, the type of championship resume Tyra's baby needs to regain any speck of credibility.

Now that Thread Count's top two morning line picks, Lisa and Heather, have been eliminated from the Top Model Cycle 9 Distaff, the competition's four finest fillies have reached the top of the Shanghai homestretch. A hotly contested scrum featuring two blacks and two blondes, there are but two picks that can save ANTM from being renamed "America's Next Top Oddly Attractive Beanpole Teenager Who Gets Discovered at a Mall by a CW Talent Scout, Beats Out 12 Other Oddly Attractive Beanpole (and One Plus-Size) Teenagers (and One Older Girl) to Get a Modeling Contract, and Flames Out Almost Instantly When Pitted Against Real Models in the Real World." Following are the homestretch odds (with final six handicapping in parentheses):

Bianca Golden, 10-1 (12-1). Only because she's somehow made it this far do we narrow the odds for this annoying bitch from Queens. If she wins, it will mark the second year in a row that the ANTM jury has anointed a wannabe trannie, and will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that this show is incapable of tapping a would-be industry star. Furthermore, Ms. J should yield his spot on the panel to an uber-hetero frat guy from Florida State University. Sure, he'd pick a model who's "too Maxim," but it's better than picking a model who's simply too lame to compete in any arena.

Jenah Doucette, 6-1 (4-1). Nigel Barker hates her, she's been knocked down a couple pegs over the last couple rounds, and she has two sets of lower teeth. Yeah, she's a little edgier than her remaining opponents, but "edge" shouldn't be confused with "potentially successful model." She's toast.

Chantal Jones, 3-1 (7-1). If the aforementioned frat guy from FSU were on the panel right now, she'd be the runaway pick, and an awful lot of models making an awful lot of money right now bear a striking resemblance to this leggy blonde from Texas -- which is what makes her the safe pick, but also a slight underdog based on the ANTM panel's constant need for a "fresh" look.

Saleisha, 2-1 (5-1). It wasn't too long ago we had this All-American black girl from L.A. at 20-1, and now, here she is, gaining on the field with every stride and pulling even at the top of the stretch. She's shown the most improvement, doesn't make mistakes, has a good head on her shoulders, looks like Rihanna, and takes criticism well. At minimum, she'll go on to a steady commercial career, and this stable badly needs a champion of that caliber to emerge from its ranks. She'll top Jones by a neck at the wire.